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The study shows that the further course of the Russian-Ukrainian war depends both on the state of affairs in the theater of operations and on the prospect of building a new Euro-Atlantic architecture of security and regional stability in Europe. The development of this architecture should be based, first of all, on taking into account the balance of interests of the USA, EU+Great Britain, on the one hand, and China and Russia, on the other. In the context of this paradigm, eleven scenarios for determining the future geopolitical status of Ukraine were generated: four - under the conditions of Ukraine’s continued movement towards NATO. Four scenarios, under the conditions of Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO, but for the continuation of the movement towards the EU. Two scenarios related to Ukraine’s provision of individual security outside the EU and NATO. The worst-case scenario is a continuous military confrontation between the opposing sides and their preparation for the next large-scale war. It is shown that the path to achieving the conditions for the start of the negotiation process will be difficult and long. Currently, both the participants in the conflict and the international community do not yet have a constructive negotiating platform, which points to the prospect of a continuation of the war in 2024 and possibly in 2025.