03.04.2020

A predictive mathematical model is developed and computer modeling of the coronavirus pandemic is carrying out by experts of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development (WDC-Ukraine) to study the impact of this phenomenon on the economy of Ukraine. Calculations based on pessimistic and optimistic scenarios made it possible to estimate the scale of human losses and the time horizons of the growth and extinction of the coronavirus pandemic in Ukraine. The results of the study were published on April 3, 2020 on the Center's website in report  "FORESIGHT COVID-19: IMPACT ON ECONOMY AND SOCIETY".

The impact of the swine flu, Ebola, and coronavirus pandemics on the development of the world economy and global society is also analyzed in the mentioned WDC-Ukraine’s study. It has been shown that these pandemics have tended to follow a pattern of approximately 5-year cycles. They significantly affect the global economy, leading to the breakdown of economic chains and the inhibition of the development of the economy and society for several months or more.

The issued work is a continuation of a series of studies on the prediction (foresight) of a possible future development path for Ukraine and the construction of scenarios of this development for the medium and long term.

The simulation results - forecasts of the spread of the COVID-19 in Ukraine - are also presented among the tools of the WDC-Ukraine COVID-19 Dashboard, created by the team of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development at the end of March 2020 to track and predict the spread of the coronavirus disease in Ukraine.

The dashboard displays data for Ukraine as a whole and across regions on the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of the COVID-19, deaths, and patients recovered. Information is presented in the form of maps, diagrams, counters.